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McCain Still in Hunt for MI |
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Written by Dennis Denno
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Monday, 06 October 2008 |
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LANSING, Mich. — With political insiders still reeling from last week’s announcement that Republican presidential candidate John McCain has withdrawn his campaign from Michigan, new polling data suggest the race is still too close to call.
The latest poll from Denno-Noor, The Rossman Group and MIRS shows Barack Obama within statistical striking distance with only a 5 percent lead in Michigan over his Republican contender. McCain trails Obama with 39 percent support of Michigan’s likely voters compared to Obama’s 44 percent. Another 13 percent of voters remain undecided, while the rest plan on voting for one of the third party candidates on the ballot. “Michigan is still widely considered a battle ground state,” said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO of The Rossman Group. “For a major presidential contender to pull out when the numbers are this tight, it really begs the question – what are you thinking – or are you?” The survey was conducted by Denno Noor Research in partnership with The Rossman Group and Michigan Information & Research Services (MIRS). The Rossman Group was recently named Lansing’s Most Effective Public Relations Firm by a survey of political insiders, and MIRS is Michigan’s leading daily legislative and state government newsletter.The question was worded as follows:“If the Presidential Election were held today, who do you think you would vote for, Democratic Party candidates Barack Obama and Joseph Biden, Republican Party candidates John McCain and Sarah Palin, Green Party Candidates Cynthia McKinney and Rosa Clemente, US Tax Party candidates Charles Baldwin and Darrell Castle, Libertarian Party candidates Bob Barr and Wayne Allen Root or Natural Law Party candidates Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales? The McCain campaign quoted poor poll results and Michigan’s recent history of favoring Democrats in presidential elections as reasons for pulling out of Michigan to focus on other states, but many political insiders have called this decision into question. “A five percent lead, with a margin of error at plus or minus four percent, is extremely close,” said Denno Noor President Dennis Denno. “I don’t know how John McCain could continue to ignore such an important battleground state when numbers across the state show such a tight race.” “Republicans have not won a Presidential Election in Michigan since 1988, but they have consistently improved on their results in each subsequent election,” said MIRS President John T. Reurink. “If the Republicans lose another close election in Michigan, they may be kicking themselves for pulling out so early.” Methodology:
This survey was part of the Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor Quarterly Survey of the Michigan electorate. 600 respondents were surveyed between October 1 and October 4, and the participation was stratified based on census data and past voter behavior. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they intended on voting, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the November 2008 Election. The margin of error is plus/minus four percent.
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